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A Few Key findings of this Report:
- Future wars will be fought over the issue of survival rather than religion, ideology or national honor.
- Between 2010 and 2020 Europe is hardest hit by climatic change with an average annual temperature drop of 6F. Climate in Britain becomes colder and drier as weather patterns begin to resemble Siberia.
- Deaths from war and famine run into the millions until the planet's population is reduced by such an extent the Earth can cope.
- Riots and internal conflict tear apart India, South Africa and Indonesia.
- Access to water becomes a major battleground. The Nile, Danube and Amazon are all mentioned as being high risk.
- A 'significant drop' in the planet's ability to sustain its present population will become apparent over the next 20 years.
The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable -- to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security. The authors interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller.
This public report, prepared by Global Business Network for the Department of Defense, has been the subject of several news stories. Fortune magazine excerpted the report in its Feb. 9, 2004, issue ("The Pentagon's Weather Nightmare," by David Stipp). The actual report, titled "An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United States National Security," was written by Peter Schwartz (GBN chairman) and Doug Randall (co-head of GBN's consulting practice). Contrary to much of the media coverage, the report was not secret, suppressed, or predictive.
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